- In 2025 Kosovo’s imports from Ukraine amounted to €20.877 million, 29.1% more than in 2024.
- The recovery has not yet brought trade back to the 2021 level: the 2025 figure was 43.1% lower.
- Ukraine’s share of Kosovo’s total imports fell from 0.783% in 2021 to 0.296% in 2025.
- In 2025 Kosovo exported only €120 thousand to Ukraine; the flow of goods remains sharply asymmetric.
- The main task for a business is not to forecast a “return to normal” but to verify the specific commodity heading, the route, regulatory clearance and the economics of the delivery.
The five-year trend
The official table of the Kosovo Agency of Statistics (ASK) records the customs value of trade in thousands of euro. The figures below are converted into millions of euro; the percentages and Ukraine’s rankings are calculated by UKCC on the basis of the same table.
| Year | Kosovo’s total imports, € billion | Imports from Ukraine, € million | Ukraine’s share | Ukraine’s rank among import partner countries | Kosovo’s exports to Ukraine, € million |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4.684 | 36.662 | 0.783% | 26 | 0.058 |
| 2022 | 5.639 | 16.885 | 0.299% | 36 | 0.505 |
| 2023 | 5.917 | 32.080 | 0.542% | 27 | 0.196 |
| 2024 | 6.370 | 16.171 | 0.254% | 37 | 0.093 |
| 2025 | 7.056 | 20.877 | 0.296% | 37 | 0.120 |
Source: Kosovo Agency of Statistics; UKCC calculations.
What the data shows
1. There is a recovery, but it has not become a stable trend. After the fall in 2022, deliveries almost recovered in 2023, contracted again in 2024 and grew in part in 2025. One year of growth is not sufficient grounds for a straight-line forecast.
2. Kosovo’s imports grew faster than Ukraine’s presence. Kosovo’s total imports increased by roughly 50.6% between 2021 and 2025, while imports from Ukraine fell. That is why, even after the growth in 2025, Ukraine’s share remained below 0.3%.
3. Bilateral trade is in practice one-directional. In 2025 the ratio of Kosovo’s imports from Ukraine to Kosovo’s exports to Ukraine was approximately 174 to 1. This does not mean an automatic opportunity for any Kosovar product: it means that the channel through which Kosovar companies enter the Ukrainian market requires its own infrastructure — finding a buyer, verifying requirements, taking part in procurement and local support on the ground.
4. Partner statistics do not explain the commodity structure. The public ASK tables give trade by partner country and trade by commodity code separately. Within the same open data set they do not provide a reliable cross-section of “Ukraine × HS4”. UKCC therefore does not attribute specific commodity shares to Ukraine without a reproducible source.
What a company should do
- Establish the HS6 code for the specific product rather than working only with its commercial name.
- Check Kosovo’s imports at HS4, separately determine the HS6 code of the specific product and compare this with the global export record of the Ukrainian manufacturer.
- Obtain written confirmation from the importer or the customs broker on duties, VAT, permits and documents.
- Compare at least two real routes through third countries with the same Incoterms and the same set of costs.
- Carry out a pilot delivery or commercial validation with an identified buyer before scaling up.
Limits of the conclusions
The statistics show the customs value of declared goods, but not profitability, the number of active suppliers, shelf prices, the structure of distribution channels or the regulatory suitability of a specific product.
This brief is not customs, legal or investment advice.
Sources
- ASK — trade by partner country
- ASK — total trade turnover